Are The Raps Back to Normal? (The Overreaction Column)

Damn that felt good.  Two games removed from the Philly debacle , the Raptors kind’a sort’a looked like their old selves (Pre- Demar-Injury selves, not 5-years-prior-to-December-2013 selves).  The ball was moving, almost everyone (Jonas says hi!) was getting a touch, and the defense looked solid.  That’s the story our eyes told, do the numbers agree?

In short, they sure as hell do. 

For comparison purposes I’ve split the Raptors season into two groups – Pre-Demar injury, and the shitty stretch (Jan 2 – Jan 25).  Yesterday pleased our eyes because, by the numbers, it reflected the same “Pre-Injury” level of performance, to which we’ve grown accustomed:

Team	GP	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	AST%	AST/TO	AST Ratio	TO Ratio
VS Indy	1	48	113.1	94.7	61.8	1.75	17.4	13
Pre Injury (Oct 29 – Nov 28)	26	1263	111	102.6	53.3	1.71	16.2	12.5
The shitty stretch (Jan 2 – Jan 25)	12	576	101.7	105.9	57.5	1.34	16.2	16.1

It all starts with turnovers.  During the shitty stretch the Raptors averaged 16.1 turnovers per 100 possessions.  Good enough for 21^st in the league. Always hailed as a low turnover team (I remember the days when it was compulsory to point out Jose Calderon’s AST/TO ratio with every mention of his name),  The Raptors got away from this during the shitty stretch.  A lot had to do with tired legs, as well as guys trying to do too much (aka crunch time Kyle). Yesterday they got back to their old selves, turning the ball over  only13 times per 100 possessions - during the pre-injury stretch they sat at 12.5.

The assists ratio crept a little higher, but the biggest difference was an offense finally nailing open looks.  The OffRtg (113.1) climbed to the normal badassery we’ve grown accustomed to.  Of course a rating of 111 (pre-demar) is unsustainable, but given our fire power, so is a “shitty stretch” rating of 101.7.  The biggest difference however, has been on the defensive end, where the reduction in turnovers, coupled with Demar’s return, have had a profound impact.   

Granted, one game is a very very small sample size.  This may all change tonight if they make Darren Colison look like DJ Augstin, who looked like Old Derrick Rose just two nights ago.  On top of all this, there’s still something troubling that 1^st Quarter offense.  But for sanity's sake, let’s hope the shitty stretch was an aberration.  Yesterday was a good sign of that.